Ludwig von Mises's brother, Richard, was a distinguished =
mathematician,=20
philosopher, and aeronautical engineer. While, in contrast to Ludwig, =
Richard=20
was an ardent positivist, he made a distinguished contribution to =
probability=20
theory that has important implications for a sound approach to the =
social=20
sciences.
While probability theory is generally thought of as a branch of =
mathematics,=20
its foundations are purely philosophic, and Richard von Mises, in his =
great work=20
Probability,=20
Statistics, and Truth, developed the correct, objective, or =
"frequency"=20
theory of probability.
Writing clearly and nonmathematically as a philosopher, von Mises =
examined=20
the nature of the probability fraction; what, for example, does it mean =
to say=20
that the probability of a die coming up as a two-spot is one-sixth?
Richard, in a probability theory later adopted by Ludwig, =
demonstrated that=20
it is meaningless to say that the probability of each throw coming up =
two is=20
one-sixth; what the fraction means is this: if the die is not loaded, =
and if it=20
is thrown a very large number of times, it will tend asymptotically to =
come up=20
as a two one-sixth of the time. And the only way you can really make =
sure that=20
the die is not loaded, i.e., that the two-spot will come up one-sixth of =
the=20
time is to make the very large number of throws.
The contrasting theories of probability maintain that the probability =
fraction is subjective, that the fraction refers to the =
subjective belief=20
or hunch in the minds of each person, and therefore that probability =
theory can=20
be applied to the individual case.
The implications for social science =E2=80=94 for the study of human =
action =E2=80=94 of the=20
contrasting theories are profound. For, if one holds to the objective =
Mises=20
theory, it is unscientific and illegitimate to apply probability theory =
to any=20
situations where the events (like the tossing of a die) are not strictly =
homogenous, and repeated a large number of times. And since, outside of =
die=20
tossing or roulette, all the events of human action, economic or =
political or in=20
daily life are clearly not homogeneous and therefore not repeatable, the =
Mises=20
view demonstrates that all use of probability theory in social science =
is=20
illegitimate.
Hence, it is scientifically meaningless to say that the "probability =
of Jerry=20
Ford being elected in 1976 is three-eighths," since elections are not=20
homogeneous events repeated a large number of times. And yet a large =
amount of=20
modern social science and of its mathematizing rests on this faulty view =
of=20
probability theory.
Since, as one might expect, the Mises view of probability has been =
neglected=20
in recent years, it is good to see the Gillies book carry on the =
tradition and=20
the argument. While Gillies deviates, in most ways unfortunately, from =
the pure=20
Mises line, his book is a thorough, largely nonmathematical evaluation =
of the=20
current state of the debate.
Murray N. Rothbard (1926=E2=80=931995) was dean of the Austrian =
School. He was an=20
economist, economic historian, and libertarian political philosopher. =
See Murray=20
N. Rothbard's article =
archives.
This review originally appeared in the Libertarian Review, Vol. 9, =
No. 2=20
(1975), p. 9.![3D"Download]()
Comment=20
on the blog.
You can subscribe to future articles by Murray N. Rothbard via this =
RSS=20
feed.